By Emel Akan and Ryan Morgan
WASHINGTON—A month ago, President Donald Trump stated that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s days in power were numbered. At the time, few believed that the country’s decades-long socialist regime might be facing imminent collapse.
Recently, a growing military buildup in the region and talks of possible U.S. land strikes in Venezuela have raised questions about whether Trump is seeking regime change in the country, and whether U.S. action could indirectly trigger a collapse.
“I’m not going to tell you what the goal is. You should probably know what the goal is,” Trump told reporters on Nov. 25 on Air Force One.
“They’ve caused a lot of problems, and they’ve sent millions of people into our country,” he said, referring to the Maduro regime.
The Trump administration views the Venezuelan regime as a significant national security threat to the United States, citing its involvement in drug trafficking, mass migration, and its ties to Iran, China, and Russia.
In recent weeks, the U.S. military has deployed one of its largest forces in decades to the Caribbean, including the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, considered the world’s most advanced aircraft carrier. In total, nearly a dozen warships and about 12,000 troops are stationed in the region, as part of what the Pentagon has called “Operation Southern Spear.”
Evan Ellis, a Latin American studies professor at the U.S. Army War College, doesn’t believe the Trump administration is conducting the military buildup to explicitly seek regime change.
“It’s not about restoring the legitimate government. It’s not about a crusade for democracy per se. It’s about stopping a threat to U.S. interests,” he told The Epoch Times.
Although, Ellis noted, U.S. land strikes into Venezuela “would likely set into motion a chain of events” that might lead to regime change.
If Maduro departs the country, the legitimate and democratically elected government of Venezuela’s opposition leader, Edmundo González, is expected to come to power. González was recognized by the United States and Europe as Venezuela’s rightful president-elect following the disputed 2024 election.
Trump and members of his administration have repeatedly said Maduro is head of an extensive drug trafficking network, an allegation the Venezuelan leader has denied.
“Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent Venezuela’s legitimate government,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Nov. 16 statement.
A week later, the United States formally designated Venezuela’s Cartel de Los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, holding it responsible for violence across the western hemisphere and for trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe.
With this action, the administration has formally designated Maduro as a member of a foreign terrorist organization.
The administration said the terrorist designation authorizes the United States to expand military operations in Venezuela.
Cartel de Los Soles has become the 14th Latin America-based criminal enterprise to be designated as a foreign terrorist organization since the beginning of Trump’s second term. Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, and the Dominican Republic have also recognized the group as a terrorist organization.
Hegseth said on Nov. 21 that designating the cartel as a terrorist organization would bring “new options” to the administration, without revealing what those options are.
A Regime on the Brink?
Despite sitting on top of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s oil production has collapsed due to the socialist regime’s mismanagement and U.S. sanctions, resulting in a severe economic crisis. Many Venezuelans who have suffered from hyperinflation, poverty, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis for years may finally see an opportunity for change.
According to Andres Martinez-Fernandez, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, the regime is “hanging on to power by a thread,” with limited military support.
“It’s not a regime that maintains any level of substantial public support in Venezuela,” he told The Epoch Times. “Even within the military, adherence to the regime is more limited to some of the higher ranks, those who have benefited from engagement in narcotrafficking.”
Martinez-Fernandez does not anticipate widespread unrest in the event of regime collapse and Maduro’s departure.
Ellis cautioned that violence and instability in the country could follow regime change. Certain groups in Venezuela, including radicalized members of the National Guard, may attempt to destabilize the country by inciting terrorism, attacking refineries, or sabotaging infrastructure, he said, adding that such violence could hinder the new government’s efforts to restore order.
The Trump administration is unlikely to send its troops into Venezuela to change the regime or restore order, according to Brent Sadler, a retired U.S. Navy captain and a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
Instead, the goal seems to constrain or prevent further escalation, he told The Epoch Times.
“This is not an invasion force. It’s more surgical,” Sadler said.
“It’s intended to provide the president of the United States the option to surgically go after or to respond, should the Venezuelans or the cartels decide to take a shot at U.S. forces. It’s a hammer waiting to be used.”
Sadler predicts that American forces will stay in the region until Venezuelan drug cartels are put out of business.
He said that the primary goal of the military operation is to cut the cartels off from their two big markets: the United States and Europe.
As economic pressure grows, he noted, internal conflicts will likely increase, potentially weakening the cartels and eventually leading to their collapse.
Legal Justification
Since September, the U.S. military has conducted at least 21 lethal strikes on suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean. These strikes killed more than 80 people, whom the Trump administration referred to as “narco-terrorists.”
The administration argues that the military’s strikes in the Caribbean are part of a “non-international armed conflict” because it doesn’t recognize Maduro’s government as legitimate.
Ellis said that if the United States attacks a government that it recognizes as legitimate, it can be seen as an act of war. But if the group in power is not a legitimate government, instead an armed group occupying a territory, then the administration can argue this is not a war between states, but a non-international armed conflict.
The administration argues that this is a “non-international armed conflict,” which makes the boat strikes permissible under domestic law, even though they occur in international waters.
On Nov. 10, 2025, at the direction of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a strike on a vessel in international waters that was being operated by a designated terrorist organization in the Caribbean. Intelligence confirmed that the vessel was involved in illicit narcotics smuggling, transiting along a known narco-trafficking route, and carrying narcotics. Four male narco-terrorists were killed and no U.S. military forces were harmed. U.S. Southern Command
“That is consistent with the administration’s argument that this is a state of non-international armed conflict. And clearly, the González government has been supportive of U.S. action,” Ellis said, noting that calling the regime illegitimate relates to “the administration’s legal argument on the legitimacy of the strikes, more than an argument about regime change.”
Some international law experts, United Nations officials, members of Congress, and human rights organizations find this reasoning unconvincing, with critics arguing that the recent U.S. boat strikes were unlawful and amounted to extrajudicial killings.
Oil, Russia, China
While both China and Russia have interests in the region, it’s unlikely they would take the risk of becoming directly involved in the fight, according to experts.
In late October, a Russian cargo plane landed in Venezuela, according to Defense News. Moscow recently sent 120 troops to train Venezuelan forces, the Kyiv Post reported this month.
Given Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, experts believe that it’s unlikely to provide support for the Maduro regime and risk straining relations with the United States.
The U.S. military presence in the region has been a welcome development for Guyana, one of South America’s smallest countries. Guyana faces a significant threat from Venezuela, which claims the oil-rich Essequibo region, nearly two-thirds of Guyana’s territory. China has also been growing its economic influence in Guyana.
Critical of the Trump administration’s pressure on Venezuela, Colombian President Gustavo Petro has said the U.S. efforts are aimed more at gaining access to the country’s oil than at stopping drug trafficking.
U.S. companies, such as Chevron, may benefit from increased access to the Venezuelan market and Ellis said that more access to oil would be a positive outcome of regime change, but it’s not the primary goal.
Easy Way or Hard Way
There have been growing signs in recent days that a U.S. strike on Venezuela could be imminent.
Last week, the United States conducted joint military exercises with Trinidad and Tobago, a country located just 7 miles off Venezuela’s northeast coast.
U.S. military leaders also increased their presence in the region. On Nov. 24, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, and his senior enlisted adviser, David Isom, visited Puerto Rico to thank service members supporting missions in the Caribbean Sea. The next day, Caine visited Trinidad and Tobago, which has expressed full support for the U.S. operation.
On Nov. 26, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth traveled to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, to meet with the country’s top leaders.
Several major airlines have canceled flights to Venezuela after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a warning on Nov. 21 about a “worsening security situation and heightened military activity” in the region.
Martinez-Fernandez does not foresee a scenario in which Maduro can remain in power.
He said the Trump administration’s hints in recent days about a possible attack has likely been with the hope that the threat will encourage Venezuela’s military to topple the regime from within.
The Venezuelan leader may also bend to the pressure to resign and leave the country peacefully, which would simplify matters for the U.S. military.
Trump has left the door open for negotiations, stating that he might hold talks with Maduro.
On Nov. 25, the U.S. president told reporters, “If we can save lives, we can do things the easy way, that’s fine, and if we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine, too.”
