By Janice Hisle
Even after being indicted in two separate criminal cases, former President Donald Trump has maintained a commanding lead over his Republican rivals in national polls of registered voters.
But those same polls are showing that if Trump were to run head-to-head against the presumed 2024 Democratic nominee, President Joe Biden, the two candidates would be in a statistical dead heat.
Although much could change between now and the presidential election, political insiders and analysts told The Epoch Times that current polling provides valuable insights into how the 2024 contest is taking shape.
They also say this election campaign already has secured a prominent place in U.S. history. Both major partiesâ leading candidates are embroiled in unprecedented controversies, reducing the visibility of their primary election challengers.
Those simmering scandals will ultimately affect not only polling but also could greatly influence who wins the 2024 election. Many voters believe the result will prove pivotal for the future of democracy in America, regardless of partisan politics.
Turning Point
âIn my wildest dreams, I would have never thought that, in the year 2023, weâd be dealing with what weâre dealing with,â Mike Allen, an attorney, former prosecutor and judge in Cincinnati, Ohio, told The Epoch Times.
Allen, a conservative who hosts a popular political talk show on radio station 700 WLW, said he senses that House Republicansâ recent revelations about Bidenâs alleged foreign influence-peddling are starting to break through to average citizens.
âWe may have reached a turning point,â Allen said on June 23.
That was just after House Republicans revealed IRS whistleblowersâ allegations that the Department of Justice (DOJ) put up roadblocks during an investigation of Bidenâs son, Hunter Biden.
The presidentâs son allegedly failed to properly report millions of dollars in income from foreign sources but later paid taxes on that income.
The president has declined to answer reportersâ questions on this topic, but Attorney General Merrick Garland denies that the DOJ interfered with the IRSâs probe.
But following last weekâs plea deal that could allow the younger Biden to avoid time behind bars, many people now perceive that the U.S. justice system appears to be âweaponizedâ for the persecution of political enemies such as Trump, Allen said. In contrast, free passes seem to be given to people such as the Bidens, who have powerful political connections.
âI do federal criminal work ⊠and almost no one who ends up in federal court does not go to prison,â Allen said. âThe feds donât indict anyone unless itâs tied up in a pretty yellow bow ⊠and theyâve got ya.â
But you donât have to be a lawyer to see that Hunter Biden appears to have been offered a âsweetheart deal,â Allen said.
âPeople are angry about the two-tiered system of justice we have in this country. And thatâs never happened here before,â Allen said. âPeople are mad.â
They donât like seeing that the Biden family has been reaping millions of dollars âfor no apparent reason,â Allen said.
He and others think that Trump is doing well in the polls partly because of backlash against the perceived injustices.
Solidified Views Drive Polls
But New York-based Democratic strategist David Carlucci sees the polls as indicators of dual forces: Trumpâs unshakable appeal to his most loyal supporters, as well as the unflinching disdain of his detractors.
âWith little change in the national polls post-Trumpâs indictment, it is clear that most Americans have already pledged allegiance to or against the former President,â Carlucci told The Epoch Times. âEven after being the first federally indicted president in U.S. history, Donald Trumpâs base stands firmly behind him.â
According to the RealClear Politics (RCP) average as of June 24, Trump was outpacing his nearest Republican challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by more than 30 percentage points. All other GOP presidential hopefuls ranked in the single digits.
Likewise, RCP shows Biden is the clear frontrunner for his partyâs nomination. The Democrat president holds a whopping 50-point margin over environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., even though his familyâs name carries considerable cachet. His father was an attorney general, and his uncle was President John F. Kennedy; both were assassinated in the 1960s.
Kennedy, DeSantis and all the other 2024 presidential hopefuls are having difficulty getting much notice thus far. Thatâs because the Biden and Trump controversies are consuming all of the political âoxygen.â
Politics âFrozenâ in June?
Conservative commentator Dick Morris, in a Newsmax column, wrote: âAmerican politics have stopped, frozen by the indictment of Trump for no good reason and the deterioration of Joe Biden.â
But Special Counsel Jack Smith has said that federal prosecutors followed the highest ethical standards as they pursued the Florida case against Trump.
Meanwhile, Morris was referring to continuing concerns about Biden appearing disoriented at times during public functions; Bidenâs supporters counter that his physician has declared he is physically and mentally fit for the rigors of the presidency.
Still, concerns over both Trump and Biden have overshadowed the normal political cycle, Morris said.
âIn theory, this week should have been when the nominating process in each party heated up as candidates took to the runway to launch their campaigns,â Morris wrote on June 24. âBut there was zero energy for them.â
He argues that circumstances have paralyzed challengers to both Trump and Biden.
All current or potential Democrat candidates âwill have to swear that they simply love the emperorâs new clothes. No one can step out and say that he doesnât have any. Anyone who dares speak these words will be cast out and be doomed,â Morris said.
On the Republican side, âthere is room for only two viewpoints: That Trump is guilty or that he is innocent,â Morris said.
âDeSantis [and others] canât split the difference and say, âTrump is the innocent victim of the Deep State and is being persecuted by the Democrats, but Iâm running against him anyway,ââ Morris wrote.
This leaves Trumpâs GOP opponents with nowhere to stand, he said.
DeSantis Could Climb
Allen said itâs a shame that DeSantisâ campaign has not soared; he likes what DeSantis has accomplished as Floridaâs governor. âYou have to keep in mind that itâs really early,â Allen said.
DeSantisâ biggest weakness: âHeâs not real good on the stump. He just doesnât seem real comfortable. But Iâm sure that heâll probably grow into that,â Allen said.
Most callers to Allenâs talk show are pro-Trump. But Allen thinks DeSantis has an opportunity to appeal to Trump supporters who oppose âwokeâ social policies.
DeSantis is âthe epitome of anti-wokeness,â Allen said, âand people are fed up with all of that garbage. They see DeSantis isnât afraid to stand up against itâŠI think people admire that. I know they admire that.â
The Florida governor has signed bills that prohibit schoolchildren from being taught about transgenderism and sexual orientation at young ages, for example. Trump also has said he opposes such âindoctrinationâ of children; both candidates have objected to allowing biological males to compete against females in sports.
In contrast, Biden has railed against such âanti-transgenderâ policies. That stance appeases his supporters on the far left while risking alienating those who are more moderate. Trump also faces a challenge in wooing those same voters who are stuck in the political middle.
Biden, Trump Both âUnfavorableâ
A Trump-Biden hypothetical matchup showed Trump with only a 0.5-percent leadâstatistically insignificant considering that many polls included in the RCP average have margins of error of about 3 percent.
âPolls overall are great forecasts for an election but are no crystal ball,â Carlucci said. âPlenty can and will happen before November 2024, which will mold the electionâs results. This cannot be closer to the truth with a former president indicted by the federal government.â
Trump is accused of crimes for improper use of documentsâclassified government records in a Florida federal case and business records in a New York state case.
Meanwhile, Biden also faces a probe over his own handling of government documentsâan investigation that pales in comparison to the revelations coming from Republicans in Congress. They are investigating the Biden familyâs foreign business dealings, including an allegation that a foreign national paid Biden at least $5 million in exchange for a policy decision while he was vice president.
Allen finds the emerging scandal shocking. âIf thatâs true, thatâs selling out your country,â Allen said.
Although Allen has been critical of Trump at times, he said some voters may decide that âTrump with all of his warts is better than a guy who has allegedly taken money from foreign governments.â
âAnd again, there is not proof beyond a reasonable doubt of that yet,â Allen said about the allegation against Biden. âBut there sure as hell is probable cause to do an unbiased investigation, and I donât think that the Department of Justice can do it.â
He says Congressional subpoenas seem to be prying loose valuable information so that effort should continue.
Will âUnfazedâ Supporters Stray?
Meanwhile, Larry Snowden, president of the nationâs largest pro-Trump group, Club 47 USA, told The Epoch Times that a groundswell of support seems to be building for Trump. Thatâs not despite his legal troubles, but because of them, Snowden said.
âThe people I talk to know that President Trump is being treated unfairly with indictments and legal challenges,â he said. âThey know that itâs all just massive election interference efforts, and President Trumpâs supporters just become more energized and supportive of him when they see the unfair treatment.â
While Carlucci concedes that Trumpâs base so far appears stalwart if Trump faces additional charges, âthe reality of the situation might sway the thoughts of currently unfazed voters,â Carlucci said. Trump remains under investigation in two other probes relating to his reaction to Biden being declared the winner of the 2020 presidential race.
Allen counters: âI think that Trumpâs base, they donât believe that heâs guilty of anything, and theyâre gonna stick with him no matter what.â
Legal troubles notwithstanding, if Trump becomes the GOPâs nominee and heads into a 2024 rematch with Biden, Trump âfaces much greater difficultyâ than in the Republican primary, Carlucci said.
Mixed Messages in Polls
âIt is unknown if Donald Trump can take in any more supporters than he already has,â Carlucci said, referring to findings of some pollsters, including those at Quinnipiac University.
In March, prior to Trumpâs first indictment in New York, 57 percent of Americans thought criminal charges should disqualify Trump from seeking the presidency again, Quinnipiac reported. Yet 62 percent believed the prosecution was politically motivated, Quinnipiac said, noting peopleâs âmixed signalsâ about Trump.
Quinnipiacâs latest poll, released June 14, after Trumpâs federal indictment in Florida, found âsupport among Republican and Republican-leaning voters remains largely unchanged.â
However, the poll also found that more than half of registered voters looked unfavorably at both Biden and Trump. Biden registered 52 percent unfavorable; Trumpâs unfavorable rating was even worse, at 59 percent.
Snowden, the Florida-based Trump advocate, says itâs important to consider that many polls rely on registered voters instead of âlikely voters,â who could serve as more accurate barometers of how a candidate would fare in an election.
âRasmussen is the only major poll looking at likely voters,â he said, and Rasmussen shows Trump with a 6 percent lead over Biden.
To Snowden, that signals âTrump is comfortably ahead of Biden right now.â
He thinks Trump can expand that lead with his famous rallies, which Snowden predicts will be ramping up despite the distractions of Trumpâs legal woes.
âNo other candidate, Republican or Democrat, draws anywhere near the huge crowds that President Trump draws at his rallies. His rallies attract large numbers of Independent voters,â Snowden said. âRallies connect Trump directly with the people, and the fake news media is powerless to filter and distort.â
Mining for Moderates
Carlucci counters that Biden seems to be succeeding with his agenda, and, leading up to the 2024 election, he has another year in office to score accomplishments he can tout.
Conservative commentator and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich agrees that Biden should not be underestimated. Heâs a stronger candidate than his sometimes-confused, bumbling public appearance might suggest, Gingrich said in a recent column.
And Trump has considerable liabilities to overcome, legal issues aside, Allen said.
Some people who voted for Trump in 2016 did not vote for him in 2020 because they were turned off by âsome of the outlandish things he says,â Allen said.
âHe has to win back those voters ⊠but sometimes I think he thinks thatâs all he needs is his base. And we found out in 2020 thatâs not the case. He needs to appeal to moderate voters,â Allen said.
Still, Trump or another conservative candidate may enjoy an advantage in the 2024 election. American attitudes have shifted toward social conservatismâreaching the highest level in about a decade, Gallup said in a report released June 8.
Still, Independent voters hold the key to victory for either major party because Independents now represent Americaâs largest voting bloc. About 41 percent of voters called themselves Independent last year, 28 percent said they were Democrat, and another 28 percent said they were Republican, according to a 2022 Gallup poll.
Agreement on a Couple Points
Meanwhile, Quinnipiacâs most recent poll shows that all votersâRepublican, Democrat, and Independent alikeâare most concerned about two things: the economy and âpreserving democracy in the United States.â
This finding demonstrates âa rare show of unanimity in a country rattled by discord,â polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a Quinnipiac news release.
âThere is a substantial amount of concern among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents over the preservation of the nationâs very bedrock: democracy. The older the respondent, the deeper the concern,â Malloy said.
Based on that trend, the candidate who presents the most convincing case for preserving democracy and improving the American economy should win in 2024.
Allen says voters of all stripes seem to sense the import of the next presidential election.
âThe future of our country is at stake here,â he said.