By Tom Ozimek
President Donald Trump said he expects the 2026 midterm elections to hinge on prices and perceptions of economic progress, betting that easing inflation, lower energy costs, and rising wages will be key to persuading voters to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
“I think it’s going to be about the success of our country. It’ll be about pricing,” Trump told Politico in a Dec. 26 interview. “Because … they gave us high pricing, and we’re bringing it down. Energy’s way down. Gasoline is way down.”
Trump’s comments come as the White House intensifies its affordability message following a string of economic reports showing inflation cooling and growth exceeding expectations.
The president and members of his administration have said that easing price pressures—particularly for energy and prescription drugs—are beginning to deliver tangible relief after years of elevated costs.
Inflation Cools, But Affordability Still a Political Risk
Recent inflation data bolsters Trump’s case that cost-of-living pressures have eased. In November, the annual inflation rate fell to 2.7 percent, well below the market consensus of 3.1 percent. Twelve-month core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, slowed to 2.6 percent, the lowest level since March 2021.
Still, polling shows that affordability remains top of mind for voters, suggesting that inflation—which hit a recent peak of 9 percent in 2022 during the Biden administration—remains a vulnerability for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
A recent survey conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist found that 70 percent of respondents said the cost of living is not very affordable or not affordable at all—the highest proportion of Americans expressing this view since 2011. Democrats have seized on that sentiment in recent off-year elections, where they outperformed expectations in several contests.
Trump has placed blame for high prices on the previous administration. In a Dec. 17 primetime address, he said that the term “affordability” only entered the political conversation after prices surged under his predecessor President Joe Biden.
“When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years, and some would say in the history of our country, which caused prices to be higher than ever before, making life unaffordable for millions and millions of Americans,” Trump said.
“This happened during a Democrat administration, and it’s when we first began hearing the word ‘affordability.’”
Energy and Drug Prices Part of Midterm Strategy
In his interview with Politico, Trump highlighted his energy policies, which he says have been central to bringing down inflation.
“Electricity is down. It’s way down,” the president said, adding that when gasoline and oil prices come down, electricity costs also tend to come down. “It’s all coming down. It’s coming beautifully.”
Lowering energy costs by boosting domestic production has been central to Trump’s strategy on inflation and affordability.
Crude oil prices are down about 21 percent this year, helping pull the national average gasoline price to roughly $2.83 a gallon, according to AAA. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told The Epoch Times in mid-December that lower energy costs “lead to lower prices across the board,” reinforcing Trump’s message of progress on inflation.
“It’s exciting to see President Trump’s policies are absolutely working on bringing prices down,” Burgum said. “President Trump’s on the right track, and lower energy prices, of course, lead to lower prices across the board.”
Trump has also leaned into drug pricing as another factor that addresses voter concerns about affordability.
At a Dec. 19 rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, he cited new agreements with major pharmaceutical companies to lower list prices, describing it as a landmark achievement that would also help push down inflation.
“It’s been the most successful first year of any president in the history of our country,” Trump said as he opened his speech.
“Your drugs are coming down at levels that nobody ever thought was possible. This achievement alone should win us the midterms.”
In his Politico interview, Trump also highlighted forecast-beating third-quarter economic growth of 4.3 percent as further evidence of the economic success he says is key to Republicans performing well in the 2026 election.
With control of Congress narrowly divided—Republicans hold a slim House majority and a 53–47 edge in the Senate—the stakes of the midterms are high.
House Speaker Mike Johnson recently warned that losing the House could open the door to renewed impeachment efforts, while several Democrats have said they would try to impeach Trump if given the chance.
Andrew Moran and Emel Akan contributed to this report.
