Trump Leads Biden in 5 Major Battleground States: Poll
Trump Leads Biden in 5 Major Battleground States: Poll

By Jacob Burg

New polling released on May 13 shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five of the six major battleground states as the two prospective nominees face an inevitable rematch.

The poll by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College was conducted between April 28 and May 9.

It asked voters to consider their choice of candidates in a head-to-head matchup between President Trump and President Biden, as well as their choice with four third-party candidates included.

In a head-to-head race, President Trump leads President Biden among registered voters 49 percent to 42 percent in Arizona, 49 percent to 39 percent in Georgia, 49 percent to 42 percent in Michigan, 50 percent to 38 percent in Nevada, and 47 percent to 44 percent in Pennsylvania.

President Biden, however, leads 47 percent to 45 percent in Wisconsin. Between 7 percent and 13 percent of voters selected “don’t know/refused” in each of the six key battleground states.

The poll found comparable results among likely voters, although President Biden leads 47 percent to 46 percent in Michigan and trails President Trump 46 percent to 47 percent in Wisconsin within this voting block. Between 7 percent and 10 percent of likely voters also chose “don’t know/refused.”

When factoring in third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Lars Mapstead, the margins are similar.

While Ms. Stein, Mr. West, and Mr. Mapstead fail to secure more than 2 percent of support among registered voters in any state, Mr. Kennedy maintains between 9 percent and 12 percent support and comes in third place in all six states.

When pollsters asked registered voters to pick between all six candidates, President Trump led President Biden 42 percent to 33 percent in Arizona, with Mr. Kennedy in third place with 10 percent.

The former president also leads 38 percent to 36 percent to 9 percent in Michigan, 39 percent to 31 percent to 9 percent in Georgia, 41 percent to 27 percent to 12 percent in Nevada, and 40 percent to 36 percent to 10 percent in Pennsylvania.

However, President Trump and President Biden are tied in Wisconsin at 38 percent, with Mr. Kennedy in third place with 9 percent.

The previous poll released from The New York Times and Siena College in November 2023 also found President Trump leading President Biden in every key battleground state besides Wisconsin.

That poll only included Mr. Kennedy among third-party candidates, with the environmental lawyer securing between 22 percent and 26 percent of voter support.

While President Trump’s daily courtroom appearances for his New York hush money trial have limited his campaign activity, President Biden’s campaign is scaling up its efforts to reach key voters.

On May 8, the Biden-Harris campaign announced new plans to target the major battleground states with an increase in ground presence and $14 million in advertising to convince voters that President Trump is attacking “reproductive freedom, [and] plans to rip away Americans’ health care,” in Republican attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act or limit Medicare.

However, the campaign acknowledges that President Trump’s increasing approval ratings in multiple swing and battleground states are a hurdle for President Biden’s reelection chances.

“The bottom line is that there’s no question there’s going to be a close election,” said Quentin Fulks, principal deputy campaign manager for the Biden–Harris campaign, during a May 8 press call.

“We’ve said that and have reiterated time and again, and it’s going to take all of us coming together to defeat Trump again. The best predictor of how voters are feeling is how they’re voting for Joe Biden, and we see strong support for President Biden across the diverse states in the primaries.”

Jim Lee from Susquehanna Polling believes many of the current polls, including the May 13 poll from NYT/Siena, are “overstating” President Trump’s support because of how “energized” his potential voters are right now.

“They’re the ones that are responding to polls because average voters really aren’t paying attention” yet, Mr. Lee told The Epoch Times. As we get closer to election day, these numbers could shift, he added.

However, the “real wildcard” for Mr. Lee is the group of voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which have historically been a “critical coalition” for Democrat presidential candidates. With college campus protesters criticizing President Biden’s policies toward Israel and Gaza, young voters are no longer a guarantee for the Democratic Party.

“What’s their cause celeb? I mean, is it gun control? Is it going to be abortion? Is it going to be climate change? Or will this war really define their turnout patterns?” Mr. Lee added. Some could stay home, while others could choose a different candidate altogether.

The May 13 poll queried 4,097 registered voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin with a 1.8 percent margin of error.

For individual states, the margin of error was between 3.6 percent and 4.6 percent.

President Trump leads President Biden 41.2 percent to 40.3 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s May 13 polling averages. Mr. Kennedy trails with 10.2 percent of support among likely voters.

The Biden and Trump campaigns were reached out to for comment.

T.J. Muscaro contributed to this report.

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