By Jack Phillips
A prominent think tank warned on Monday that a Trump administration proposal to send $2,000 dividends from recent tariffs could cost as much as $600 billion per year.
“Assuming these dividends are designed like the COVID-era Economic Impact Payments, which went to both adults and children, we estimate each round of payments would cost about $600 billion,” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a Washington-based organization that describes itself as nonpartisan, said in an analysis issued on Nov. 10.
The group was referring to three rounds of stimulus checks that were sent out in 2020 and 2021, during the pandemic.
It noted that so far, Trump’s new tariffs have raised around $100 billion and are projected to raise around $300 billion per year.
In a Truth Social post on Sunday morning and in another on Monday, Trump suggested that $2,000 dividend payments derived from his administration’s tariffs could be coming. Trump said that high-income people would be excluded from the dividend payments, while he also said that the tariffs would be used to pay down the U.S. national debt.
The CRFB estimates that if the payments are sent out each year, it would increase the national deficit by $6 trillion over the next 10 years, or “roughly twice as much” as what the tariffs are estimated to bring in over the decade-long time period.
“On a revenue-neutral basis, current tariffs could be used to pay a $2,000 dividend every other year, starting in early 2027,” the CFRB also said.
The president made the comment about the potential dividend payments in the context of the Supreme Court having heard arguments on the legality of the tariffs this past week. To impose the duties, Trump used an emergency law that drew multiple legal challenges. Several lower courts have already ruled against the tariffs, leading his administration to take the cases to the Supreme Court.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER. We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT,” Trump wrote in the post that also suggested a dividend could be coming.
Should the Supreme Court rule against the tariffs, the revenue generated from those duties is expected to be lower, the CFRB said. That means the potential $2,000 dividend payments would add more to the national deficit, it warned.
The group added that with the U.S. national debt at an “all-time high,” policymakers should focus on reducing spending and paying off the debt. A government tracker that monitors the debt shows that it was above $38.1 trillion as of the morning of Nov. 11.
“Additional tariff revenue should be used to reduce deficits—as several administration figures have stated is the intention—instead of passing that revenue onto taxpayers in the form of cash dividends,” the group said.
When asked about the $2,000 dividends in an interview with ABC News on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the potential payments could come in the form of tax cuts.
Bessent previously said the administration has multiple other options to impose tariffs on other countries aside from the emergency law that the administration invoked earlier this year.
“You should assume that they’re here to stay,” Bessent said, referring to the tariffs.
For nations that have negotiated trade deals with Trump, they are advised to “honor your agreement,” Bessent added. “Those of you who got a good deal should stick with it.”
The Epoch Times contacted the White House for comment on Tuesday.
Reuters contributed to this report.
