Top 36 House Seats That GOP Might Gain on Election Day
Top 36 House Seats That GOP Might Gain on Election Day

By John Ransom

With the GOP projected to win a majority in the House on Nov. 8, listed below are the most competitive House seats for the GOP to either hold or gain, according to ratings by the Cook Political Report.

The list totals 36 seats, with 34 currently held by Democrats and two held by the GOP.

Next to each race is commentary provided by award-winning pollsters WPA Intelligence.

All told, Cook currently lists 60 competitive races in Democratic districts versus 26 in Republican districts.

WPA Intelligence

SeatCandidates & What to WatchCook Rating
AK-00Alaska At-Large District – Begich (R) vs. Palin (R) vs. Peltola (D): Intra-party warfare and the specific way AK implemented ranked-choice voting cost Republicans this seat in the special election and it could again.R+8
ME-02Maine 2nd District – Poliquin (R) vs. Golden (D): Golden needed the ranked-choice voting to save him two years ago. In a more Republican year and a district that became very (very) slightly more Republican in redistricting, even that may not be enough.R+6
VA-10 Virginia 10th District – Cao (R) vs. Wexton (D): Wexton running negative means they’re nervous. How well Cao does here will tell us how high the red wave goes.D+6
NY-04New York 4th District – D’Esposito (R) vs. Gillen (D): D’Esposito’s law enforcement background is going to be a boon in an area very focused on crime.D+5
CA-13California 13th District – Duarte (R) vs. Gray (D): We’ll see if Hispanics are really shifting right.D+4
OR-06Oregon 6th District – Erickson (R) vs. Salinas (D): Democrats’ redistricting efforts might have backfired in a year where they’re facing significant headwinds.D+4
PA-08Pennsylvania 8th District – Bognet (R) vs. Cartwright (D): Redistricting made this rematch slightly better for Democrats, but this district is a particularly swingy Obama-Trump district.R+4
RI-02Rhode Island 2nd District – Fung (R) vs. Magaziner (D): More blue state woes for Democrats. Even their internals appear to have the Republican up.D+4
OR-04Oregon 4th District – Skarlatos (R) vs. Hoyle (D): No public polls in a while but furtherest reach of the Oregon seats has a good GOP candidate and a right-leaning issue set.D+4
CA-49California 49th District – Maryott (R) vs. Levin (D): Democrats have a blue state problem; expect to see more upsets.D+3
CT-05Connecticut 5th District – Logan (R) vs. Hayes (D): It’s never a good sign when the Democrat’s House Majority PAC is on TV doing positive ads for one of their incumbents. Hayes’ campaign has been out-hustled from day one by challenger George Logan. And they haven’t even done a good job of it, having multiple of their ads taken down.D+3
IN-01Indiana 1st District – Green (R) vs. Mrvan (D): All star GOP recruit, solid fundraising numbers, and realignment of blue collar workers puts this district on the map.D+
NV-01Nevada 1st District – Robertson (R) vs. Titus (D): Nevada Democrats took a big risk turning a 1 safe D, 1 safe R, 2 swing map into 1 safe R, and 3 seats where Dems would probably be favored in a “neutral” year, and it might bite them in a red wave year.D+3
NY-17New York 17th District – Lawler (R) vs. Maloney (D): Maloney’s bail reform comments and Democrat infighting gave Lawler an opening, and he took full advantage of it.D+ 3
CA-47California 47th District – Baugh (R) vs. Porter (D): Porter had a late pivot to the economy, will it be enough?D+3
IL-13Illinois 13th District – Deering (R) vs. Budzinski (D): Uphill climb for Republicans after ridiculous redistricting by IL Democrats.D+3
NV-04Nevada 4th District – Peters (R) vs. Horsford (D): Nevada Democrats took a big risk turnout a 1 safe D, 1 safe R, 2 swing map into 1 safe R, and 3 seats where Dems would probably be favored in a “neutral” year, and it might bite them in a red wave year.D+3
OH-09Ohio 9th District – Majewski (R) vs. Kaptur (D): Kaptur might survive for another cycle with a weaker GOP opponent, but statewide Ohio trends could still prevail.R+3
IL-17Illinois 17th District – King (R) vs. Sorensen (D): Kings’s fundraising advantage along with a voting population that overwhelming think the country is on the wrong track will bolster her ability to close this race out.D+2
MI-07Michigan 7th District – Barrett (R) vs. Slotkin (D): Public polls are all over the place here, but voters are getting pounded with ads from both sides.R+2
OR-05Oregon 5th District – Chavez-DeRemer (R) vs. McLeod-Skinner (D): Democrats redistricting efforts might have backfired in a year where they’re facing significant headwinds.D+2
PA-07Pennsylvania 7th District – Scheller (R) vs. Wild (D): Rematch with Scheller in a much better GOP year, but can Scheller out perform the statewides (does she need to)?R+2
VA-02Virginia 2nd District – Kiggans (R) vs. Luria (D): Jen Kiggans has run a solid race focused on the economy while Luria has been focused on issues most voters don’t care about.R+2
NH-02New Hampshire 2nd District – Burns (R) vs. Kuster (D): Democrats meddling in Republican primaries may have paid off for Kuster.D+2
NY-03New York 3rd District – Devolder-Santos (R) vs. Zimmerman (D): Long Island went red last year, strong possibility of going red again next week.D+2
MN-02Minnesota 2nd District – Kistner (R) vs. Craig (D): Craig’s party-line voting record coming back to haunt her in this swing seat.D+1
NV-03Nevada 3rd District – Becker (R) vs. Lee (D): Nevada Democrats took a big risk turnout a 1 safe D, 1 safe R, 2 swing map into 1 safe R, and 3 seats where Dems would probably be favored in a “neutral” year, and it might bite them in a red wave year.D+1
OH-13Ohio 13th District – Gilbert (R) vs. Sykes (D): Crime becoming an issue at the close should tilt this seat Republican.R+1
VA-07Virginia 7th District – Vega (R) vs. Spanberger (D): Spanberger has been overly focused on abortion and not speaking about the economy until her closing ad, but all the attacks haven’t stuck to Vega as much as the Dems would hope.D+1
KS-03Kansas 3rd District – Adkins (R) vs. Davids (D): A highly college educated seat where many registered Republicans aren’t really Republicans anymore, but they still don’t like Davids voting in lock step with Biden.R+1
MI-03Michigan 3rd District – Scholten (R) vs. Meijer (D): Opposition research still matters.D+1
MI-08Michigan 8th District – vs. Junge (R) vs. Kildee (D): Name ID matters. Family ties could keep Kildee afloat despite a wave.R+1
NY-18New York 18th District – Schmitt (R) vs. Ryan (D): Easier general for Ryan than in the special, but if Zeldin’s momentum is real, he’ll have coattails here.D+1
NH-01New Hampshire 1st District – Leavitt (R) vs. Pappas (D): Late primaries make for a quick sprint in the general and Leavitt’s focus of pocketbook issues like cost of living, especially energy costs in New England, hone in on the real issues that are impacting voters in the first.Even
NY-19New York 19th District – Molinaro (R) vs. Riley (D): Concerns about the economy and crime are going to drive votes here, couple that with Biden’s low approval in the district, Republicans have the environment.Even
PA-17Pennsylvania 17th District – Shaffer (R) vs. Deluzio (D): Biden approval /disapproval isn’t nearly as bad here as in other even districts but Schaffer will benefit from Republican headwinds and trends coming out of the Senate race.Even

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