By Andrew Moran
The November jobs report will be released on Dec. 16, revealing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report arrives at an unusual moment: a Tuesday in the middle of December rather than the conventional first Friday of the month. Attached to the November jobs report is partial employment data for October.
This is a ripple effect of the 43-day government shutdown, which froze the release of crucial economic data—from the labor market to consumer prices—and delayed insights at a vital time for businesses, households, and policymakers.
Since the record-breaking spending impasse, market watchers have placed greater emphasis on a range of alternative private-sector data, including payroll processor ADP’s National Employment Report and global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas’s layoffs report.
But now, government statistics will start trickling in prior to the Christmas break.
Heading into the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the market consensus suggests the economy added 40,000 new jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4 percent.
This would be sharply down from the 119,000 gains registered in September.
It could also confirm that the months-long trend of a “low fire, low hire” environment continues.
“The job market’s gears are grinding, but at a slowing pace. The data logjam is breaking: The long-delayed November employment report arrives Tuesday, and expectations point to lackluster job growth, if any at all,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement to The Epoch Times.
Demand changed little in October, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey—also known as JOLTS. Job vacancies edged up by 12,000 to 7.67 million after a September surge of 431,000.
Private-sector employment, however, may be rebounding. ADP reported that companies added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending Nov. 22, following four straight periods of declines.
Still, RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas says the numbers should highlight a labor market that remains intact ahead of the holiday season.
“In our estimation, the labor market should remain on solid footing in October and November, helped by seasonal hirings in leisure, hospitality, transportation and warehousing,” Brusuelas said in a Dec. 9 note.
“Yet we expect the boost to be a bit more modest than in past holiday seasons as consumer demand down market is affected by rising prices.”
Muddied Waters
Disruptions to data collection could muddy upcoming payroll data.
The widely watched monthly jobs report is put together from two surveys: the establishment and the household. The former tracks jobs, hours, and wages from businesses and public entities, while the latter produces the unemployment rate and labor-force participation based on interviews with households.
The Oct. 1–Nov. 12 shutdown halted household interviews, leaving gaps in October’s employment data. The bureau later announced that electronically submitted responses would be incorporated into the November report instead.
Looking ahead, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, this is a labor market that has several “significant downside risks.“ Powell warned at the post-meeting December press conference that ”job creation may actually be negative.”
This might be seen in February 2026, when the bureau issues its final benchmark revision—annual adjustments to payroll data by aligning the monthly jobs report to complete counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW.
The preliminary revision, for the 12 months ending March 2025, showed job creation was overstated by more than 900,000.
Examining the Unemployment Rate
To ensure the unemployment rate remains stable, the employment growth rate must equal the labor force growth rate. As a result, Dallas Federal Reserve economists estimate that the breakeven growth rate is about 30,000, suggesting that the unemployment rate “remains a clearer and more stable signal of labor market slack than jobs data.”
The jobless rate, which has been ticking higher since June, when it was at 4.1 percent, has been a primary concern for economic observers and the Federal Reserve since the summer, says Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.
“The hope is to see this number stabilize at current levels and start its descent lower next year. The trend is concerning,” Woods said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “A surprise to the upside may not be music to the ears of the market, even though it could help the odds of a rate cut rise.”
Last week, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter point and signaled a single rate cut in 2026. Investors anticipate the central bank will hit the pause button in January and may not pull the trigger on another rate action until the spring, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Monetary policymakers think employment conditions will be intact over the next few years based on updates to the Summary of Economic Projections.
The quarterly survey—Fed officials’ forecasts for the economy and policy—reveals the median unemployment rate at 4.4 percent next year and 4.2 percent in 2027.
Although the central bank does not anticipate sizable declines in the unemployment rate, the Fed is expecting solid economic growth. Officials revised their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3 percent from 1.9 percent in the September survey.
This implies higher productivity, Powell told reporters.
“Higher productivity is also what enables incomes to rise over long periods of time. So it’s basically a good thing,” he said.
Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.
