By Tom Ozimek
Tariff revenues surged to $31.4 billion in October, setting a new monthly record as the Trump administration’s trade policies continue to remake U.S. trade flows and reshape the federal government’s balance sheet, according to newly released Treasury Department data.
The Monthly Treasury Statement for October, published on Nov. 25, shows net customs duties totaling $31.4 billion, surpassing all prior monthly readings and marking the strongest single-month tariff haul since the modern reporting era began. Treasury records show gross customs receipts of roughly $33.1 billion, offset by about $1.7 billion in refunds, resulting in the $31.4 billion net figure.
The record inflow points to the profound fiscal impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which imposed a 10 percent baseline levy on most imports beginning earlier this year and included a series of reciprocal and country-specific duties that pushed some tariff rates as high as 40 percent.
The October tariff income surge appears to reflect a deeper structural shift, with tariffs shifting from a marginal revenue source to one of the most rapidly expanding components of federal receipts. The month’s $31.4 billion haul surpassed the previous record of $29.7 billion set in September and came in more than four times higher than the $7.3 billion collected in October 2024.
Trump, speaking during a Thanksgiving call with U.S. service members on Nov. 27, said the revenue boom could soon allow the United States to dramatically reduce—or even eliminate—federal income taxes for many Americans.
“We’re taking in hundreds of billions of dollars like we’ve never done before,” Trump said, adding that a portion of the money could be returned to Americans in the form of a dividend, while the rest would contribute to debt reduction.
“Over the next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting and maybe cutting out completely … income tax.”
The remarks echoed Trump’s earlier statements, including an April social media post in which he suggested that Americans earning under $200,000 might see their income taxes sharply reduced or eliminated once the tariff program reached full effect.
Trump reiterated that theme on Nov. 24, writing on Truth Social that tariff revenues would skyrocket as foreign buyers exhaust stockpiles of pre-tariff goods.
Independent models show the magnitude of the shift. The Penn Wharton Budget Model, drawing on Treasury data, estimates the United States has collected more than $320 billion in customs and excise duties so far this year, compared with roughly $171 billion at the same point in 2024.
The Tax Policy Center estimates Trump’s tariff actions have lifted the average U.S. tariff rate to 17.6 percent, with tariff revenue expected to total $2.3 trillion between 2026 and 2035.
It projects the tariffs will add about $256 billion to federal receipts next year, though it cautions that its estimates remain “highly uncertain” given the complexity of stacking rules and the unpredictable impact of foreign countermeasures.
Court Challenge Looms
The Trump administration’s tariff policies face a pivotal legal test at the U.S. Supreme Court. Justices heard arguments on Nov. 5 in a case challenging the president’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad, across-the-board duties.
Neal Katyal, a former acting U.S. solicitor general representing business groups opposed to the tariffs, argued in court that the duties amount to taxes beyond what Congress authorized. Solicitor General D. John Sauer countered that tariffs remain regulatory tools squarely within presidential authority under IEEPA.
A ruling against the administration could upend major portions of the tariff program. Trump has urged the high court to rule quickly, calling the matter “urgent and time sensitive.”
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox Business he expects a decision before year-end.
