By Jack Phillips
The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security payments in 2026 could increase by 2.6 percent, according to a new estimate based on federal inflation data released on Tuesday for the month of June.
In a news release, The Senior Citizens League increased its COLA estimate by 0.1 percent over last month’s prediction, noting that its “model’s prediction has increased for five consecutive months amid mounting inflationary pressures.” Last month, the group had forecast a 2.5 percent COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.
“With only three months remaining until the next COLA announcement, TSCL’s model predicts that the COLA will be only 0.1 percentage points higher than the 2025 COLA of 2.5 percent,” the group said in a statement.
In mid-October, the Social Security Administration released the forthcoming year’s COLA based on Consumer Price Index data for July, August, and September. A 2.5 percent COLA was implemented by the agency for 2025’s payments. It means that starting in July, inflation numbers will be especially important for seniors.
The forecast issued by the seniors group comes after the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7 percent in June 2025 from a year earlier, the Labor Department said in a report Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4 percent in May of this year. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3 percent from May to June, after rising just 0.1 percent during the previous month.
The White House rebutted claims that the inflation report showed a negative impact from tariffs, since the cost of new cars fell despite the 25 percent tariffs on autos and 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. The administration also noted that despite the June bump in apparel prices, clothing prices are still cheaper than three months ago.
“Consumer Prices LOW,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!”
He referred to the benchmark interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, which are currently between 4.25 and 4.50 percent. For months, Trump has called on the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell to lower rates, while signaling at times he could move to fire Powell.
Earlier this year, Trump imposed sweeping duties of 10 percent on all imports plus 30 percent on goods from China. Last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30 percent tariff starting on Aug. 1.
The inflation report and COLA estimate also come just over a week after Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, which would provide tax deductions for seniors. Under the measure, people aged 65 and older can claim an additional $6,000 deduction per eligible individual.
“The Big Beautiful Bill is a good start on providing financial relief for American seniors. The next priority should be providing support for the estimated 7.3 million American seniors who are living on less than $1,000 per month, which is below the federal poverty line,” said Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton in a statement Tuesday, adding that about 39 percent of beneficiaries depend on Social Security payments for all of their income.
As of May, some 74 million people received Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments, according to the agency in a report released this month.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
