Real Reason Trump Surges and DeSantis Declines in Morning Consult Poll
Real Reason Trump Surges and DeSantis Declines in Morning Consult Poll

By Roger L. Simon


Like almost all polls, Morning Consult gets mixed reviews.

FiveThirtyEight gives it a “B-“ while Media Bias/Fact Check anoints it with its “Least Biased” rating, deeming it “very high” in the factual reporting department. Go figure.

Whatever the case, we can assume the poll you like is the one that shows you winning, especially winning big.

It should be no surprise then that Donald Trump, in his emails, is trumpeting the March 19 Morning Consult’s GOP primary tracker, which links Paul Bedard’s Washington Examiner article, “Trump surges to biggest 2024 lead yet, two times over DeSantis.”

Actually, the lead is slightly more than that. Trump leads by 54 percent to 26 percent over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or 28 points, in the poll. On Jan. 2, he held an 11-point lead in the Morning Consult—quite a jump.

What accounts for it?

According to Bedard, for years an excellent political reporter, it was “Likely driven by MAGA support for him as he faces the threat of a hush money indictment.”

True enough. The Republican base is naturally enraged by this overtly political activity by the Soros-selected Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. In fact, all Americans should be.

But I would suggest there are more factors at play. Trump’s lead over DeSantis in the Morning Consult poll was mounting before this most recent burst of leftist craziness dominated the news.

On Feb. 25, he was ahead by 18, and on March 14, the lead grew to 24.

Trump is responsible himself for some of this rise. He’s spending time making real proposals for the future, such as his idea to build as many as 10 new ”Freedom Cities” from the ground up on federal land and to create “hives of industry” generated by cutting off imports from China.

However, what’s most responsible for the expanding lead is the growing realization that DeSantis is, to a surprising degree, seemingly a tool of the Bush/Rove wing of the Republican Party, the so-called donor class.

That Uniparty wing is no longer nearly as popular as it once was with the rank-and-file. It is, in many cases, deplored.

Unfortunately for DeSantis, to some extent, he’s trapped in this alliance. That’s where the money is, conventionally anyway. He needs it to wage a campaign that he bases on his success governing Florida, and helping to instigate its transition into a red state.

Give the man his due; that success is real. I saw it with my own eyes. Stepping off the plane in Orlando during COVID-19, I felt as if I had returned to a free country after having been imprisoned for months in a Soviet satellite hospital.

Yet an alliance with that donor wing was and isn’t entirely necessary. It makes you wonder if DeSantis is, or is going to, sacrifice his ideals for their cash and support, or if, as some say, he can be pushed around.

My guess is the voters are beginning to smell something about him they don’t like. He’s in danger unless he works to counteract that.

This is especially true because Trump can’t easily be pushed around because of his fortune, although Drs. Fauci and Birx did maneuver him for a while. Still, to great measure—the full amount is unknown—Trump can self-finance and do as he wishes, which is apparently the long-awaited, by many, destruction of the Uniparty and the Deep State.

Interestingly, and speaking of those who can self-finance and not be beholden to the donor class, “outsider” candidate entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy made his first appearance, that I know of, in this Morning Consult poll at 1 percent.

That doesn’t sound like much, but that’s exactly the same percentage as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott—all of whom have decades of political experience—garnered in the poll.

Even that other announced candidate, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, came in only 3 points higher than Ramaswamy.

It’s possible that he will be passing most or all of them sooner or later. I have noticed in the comments section of my article about my weekend with Vivek that a number of people already are touting a Trump/Ramaswamy ticket.

Early? Yes. Way early. But I imagine many, including me, would do almost anything to see Vivek debating Kamala.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author.

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