By Tom Ozimek
U.S. freight markets are showing signs of a shift toward domestically driven industrial activity, with truckload volumes rising sharply in the Midwest even as import-related flows remain subdued, according to new data and industry commentary.
Truckload volumes are up about 8 percent year over year, driven by increased activity in traditional industrial corridors tied to autos and heavy machinery, FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller said in a Feb. 9 video.
By contrast, volumes tied to imports and port-adjacent distribution hubs have declined, with activity in Southern California’s Inland Empire down roughly 17 percent.
Describing the 8 percent annual jump in truckload volumes as a “significant” development, Fuller noted that import hubs were largely absent from the rally, with freight growth concentrated instead in domestic industrial corridors.
“It’s not what you would expect it to be,” he said.
“Imports are actually not really participating in this volume surge. It’s happening in the Rust Belt, the traditional industrial Midwest, which is really focused on auto and heavy machinery, is where we’re seeing it. We’re not seeing it the ports.”
The divergence marks a break from the import-led freight cycles that have dominated much of the past decade, including during the pandemic-era surge in goods demand.
Fuller said the current pattern suggests domestic supply chains are becoming more active, with freight growth concentrated in the middle and last mile rather than in containerized imports.
“Last year, the auto market was actually quite weak. Industrial machinery was quite weak. We’re starting to see that come back,” Fuller said, singling out places such as Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; Detroit; Kansas City; and Cleveland, which he said are outperforming other parts of the country significantly on a year-over-year basis.
“They’re gaining significant market share, and that tells me that this particular rally is all about the re-industrialization that Donald Trump’s policies have been trying to pursue.”
President Donald Trump has been pursuing policies, including tariffs, that seek to re-shore supply chains and revive America’s depleted industrial base.
Analysts often track freight and transportation data as early indicators of economic turning points, since the movement of inputs and finished goods typically shifts before slower measures such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and construction spending.
Research shows that freight measures have historically led U.S. growth cycles by several months; some studies estimate around six months, while others suggest it’s closer to four.
Factory Surveys Support Freight Signals
Recent manufacturing surveys broadly align with the freight data. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index returned to expansion territory in January, rising to 52.6 from 47.9, while S&P Global’s U.S. manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4, signaling the strongest pace of factory output growth since mid-2022.
S&P Global said industrial production accelerated sharply in January, even as demand remained uneven and export orders continued to fall.
Chris Williamson, the firm’s chief business economist, said manufacturers cited reduced import competition due to tariffs and expectations of improved domestic demand as factors supporting output.
While freight and factory surveys have turned higher, official data show that manufacturing construction spending—widely viewed as hard proof of re-industrialization—has cooled from a peak reached last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Still, manufacturing construction spending is running near record highs, with analysts watching this gauge closely in the coming months.
Trump said in a Jan. 21 speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, that he expects factory construction numbers to “skyrocket” in the near future, noting that his administration has fast-tracked permits to accelerate the process.
He touted $18 trillion in pledged foreign investment in the United States, saying it is “money coming in and building things, factories.”
“Car plants are moving back to the United States. They’re coming in from Canada. They’re coming in from Mexico, from Japan. Japan’s coming in and building plants here, in order to avoid tariffs. They’re coming in from China. They’re coming in from all over the world,” he said.
Meanwhile, the latest regional Federal Reserve surveys—which look back to activity in November and December 2025—paint a mixed picture across manufacturing-heavy districts.
Some, such as the Chicago Fed, said that capital expenditures “fell a bit” over the period but noted that contacts expect an increase in the year ahead.
The Cleveland Fed reported stronger orders for the manufacture of light vehicles and agricultural equipment than in previous periods, with contacts expecting “modest growth” in nonresidential construction in the coming months.
One developer cited in the Fed report suggested that above-trend industrial demand would bolster activity in 2026.
