By Jack Phillips
U.S. weather forecasters are keeping watch on a storm system that could develop into a tropical storm over the next week or so.
A forecast released Sunday by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows that an area of disturbance currently located over the Atlantic Ocean to the west of Africa has a 90 percent chance of forming into a named tropical storm over the next seven days.
That system has a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours, according to the NHC.
“Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, environmental conditions appear very conducive for later development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the federal weather agency said.
Currently, the storm system is “showers and thunderstorms” that are showing “signs of organization in association with a well-defined low pressure area,” located some 100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Atlantic Ocean.
“Only a small increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and on Monday,” said the NHC. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.”
Independent forecaster Matt Lanza wrote in a Substack post that the tropical disturbance “is by far the healthiest looking tropical wave we’ve seen off Africa this summer,” predicting that the system could be 500 to 700 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, which are located where the Caribbean Sea meets the Atlantic Ocean.
He warned that people “from Florida and the Bahamas up the East Coast into Atlantic Canada and Bermuda” should keep an eye on this system.
Another storm system located in the Atlantic has a low, or 10 percent chance, of formation over the next two days, and it has a 20 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm over the next seven days. That system is predicted to head north and to the east over the Atlantic and likely will pose no threat to the United States.
A recent report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the NHC, says that the hurricane season for 2025 is remaining “on track” to show “above-normal” activity.
As of Aug. 7, when the report was released, the 2025 season has produced four tropical storms and no hurricanes. Last month, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in the United States, bringing flooding and high winds to North and South Carolina.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 until Nov. 30. Generally, peak season occurs in early September.
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