By Naveen Athrappully
U.S. consumer confidence fell in June, canceling some of the growth showcased last month, according to a June 24 statement from business think tank The Conference Board (TCB).
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93 from 98.4 in May. Last month, it had rebounded by more than 12 points after five consecutive months of decline. TCB’s Confidence Survey reflects prevailing consumer and business attitudes, along with expectations for the months ahead.
The Present Situation Index and Expectations Index fell 6.4 points and 4.6 points, respectively, suggesting a bit of a gloomy outlook.
Consumers’ “appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month, but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board. “The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”
According to the statement, the retreat in confidence was shared by age and income groups. It was also the same across all political affiliations, with Republicans registering the largest decline.
Tariffs, inflation, and high prices remained consumers’ top-of-the-mind issues. Although survey results revealed a slight deterioration in participants’ views of their “Family’s Current Financial Situation,” the family’s future expectations improved to a four-month high.
The annual U.S. inflation rate came in at 2.4 percent in May 2025, a slight increase from April’s 2.3 percent, but below expectations.
Purchasing plans for cars were high, but for homes, they went down. Vacation intentions were changed.
“Nineteen percent of consumers said business conditions were ‘good,’ down from 21.4 percent in May,” said The Conference Board. There was also a slight decline in consumers’ views of the labor market.
As for future expectations, in the upcoming six months, survey participants registered a more pessimistic outlook.
Job Market, Inflation, and Powell’s Stance
According to the latest data from the Department of Labor released on June 18, the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits dipped in the previous week; initial jobless claims fell by 5,000, to 245,000.
Continuing jobless claims also fell, suggesting a more robust job market.
Recent Treasury Department data reveal a nearly 2 percent increase in real wage growth for America’s blue-collar hourly workers.
“Thanks to @POTUS’s pro-growth, America First policies, real wages for hourly workers are up nearly 2% in the first five months of @realDonaldTrump’s second term—the strongest growth in 60 years,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a June 17 social media post on X. “No president has done that before—except President Trump in his first term.”
According to a former hedge fund manager, Danny Dayan, consumer confidence is a good gauge of inflation expectations.
“Consumer confidence and inflation expectations are the mirror image of each other,” he said in a June 18 X post.
Lower consumer confidence and similar inflation numbers suggest a viable impetus for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts typically favor the market toward more growth.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman said on Monday that the U.S. central bank should consider bringing down interest rates if inflation remains contained or if data shows a weakening in labor market conditions.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had suggested implementing rate cuts as early as July.
However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on June 24 told Congress that the Trump administration’s tariffs will likely raise inflation, reiterating his comments from last week.
“Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined,” Powell said. “Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”
President Donald Trump has been calling for interest rates to be lowered.
“No inflation, great economy. We should be at least two to three points lower,” he said in a June 24 Truth Social post. “Would save the USA 800 Billion Dollars Per Year, plus. What a difference this would make. If things later change to the negative, increase the Rate.”
